Bitcoin Approaches $100K Again
Bitcoin has pushed past $97,500, showing impressive strength and continuing the momentum built over recent weeks. A key catalyst behind today’s move was the positive shift in global trade sentiment, with US, China, and India trade talks helping lift markets. Before this news however, India launched an attack on Pakistan, typically, geopolitical tensions drive investors toward safe haven assets, and as expected, gold surged 3.5%. Interestingly, Bitcoin also rose 1%, demonstrating its growing resilience in periods of uncertainty.
Attention turns to the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. Jerome Powell is expected to hold interest rates steady, but markets will be watching closely for signals during his post-meeting press conference. Any hints on the potential for future rate cuts or a reiteration of the Fed’s wait and see stance could shape Bitcoin’s next move.
Weekly Price Update
US Strategic Reserve (Arizona, New Hampshire)
History was made today with the first US State Strategic Bill passed, as New Hampshire can now allocate up to 10% of its investment fund into Bitcoin.
It was looking like Arizona was going to be the first state, but there was controversy created this week as its Bitcoin bill passed all votes and made it to the Governor’s desk for final sign off, but Katie Hobbs the governor vetoed the bill, calling Bitcoin an “untested investment.”
While Governor Hobbs calls Bitcoin “untested,” the Arizona State Retirement System holds 53,097 shares of Michael Saylor’s $MSTR, worth around $20 million, giving the state indirect Bitcoin exposure. A example of Bitcoin quietly creeping in through the back door of institutional investments. More importantly, it highlights how out of touch Hobbs’ stance is, the state is already sitting on a sizeable investment position directly tied to Bitcoin’s performance, clearly without her knowing.
Global M2 Money Supply VS Bitcoin
Our Bitcoin vs Global M2 money supply (with an 84-day lag) chart continues to line up nicely and is looking promising. To recap, M2 includes all physical currency in circulation along with easily accessible funds like savings and short-term deposits.
When you lag BTC by about 84 days, it’s historically tracked the M2 chart closely. At the moment, M2 is continuing to trend higher, and BTC is following. If this relationship keeps holding, our model suggests we could see a potential move above $100k by mid-2025, and so far that’s shaping up to be right on track.
Weekly Narrative Performance
BTC continues to trend upwards this week, outperforming every other sector with a 2.5% gain. ETH is also holding up well, up 2% over the week. On the other end, L2s and RWA were hit the hardest, both down, which shows they’re lacking mindshare at the moment. Gaming, DeFi, and memecoins also saw decent pullbacks, but nothing out of the ordinary given recent runs. AI only dropped 4% after being one of the top performing sectors over the last few weeks, so still showing relative strength. It should be an interesting week ahead with BTC looking like it’s gearing up for a potential breakout, and if that happens, we could see capital rotate back into risk and the rest of the sectors follow with strong upside.
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
One of the largest upgrades just went live on Ethereum’s blockchain, aimed at making the network faster, cheaper, and more user friendly.
Smarter wallets now let users bundle multiple actions into a single transaction and pay fees with tokens like USDC instead of just ETH.
The upgrade is designed to improve the overall user experience, which could help drive broader adoption and boost Ethereum’s long term value by increasing network activity.
Better staking: Previously, you needed exactly 32 ETH to stake as a validator. Now, you can stake up to 2,048 ETH per validator, allowing holders to earn rewards on their full balance and making the network more efficient.
Cheaper, faster transactions: Ethereum has doubled its capacity for handling data, helping Layer-2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism process transactions faster and at lower costs, ultimately reducing congestion on the main Ethereum network.
China, India, US trade Negotiations
A key driver behind Bitcoin’s move today is the wave of positive news around global trade and negotiations, which has lifted market sentiment. China’s Commerce Ministry has confirmed that reports of planned trade talks with the US are accurate, a development seen as a step toward easing tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
Adding to the momentum, US Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to meet with China’s top economic official this week for what are expected to be high stakes discussions. Meanwhile, India’s decision to offer zero tariffs on pharmaceuticals, steel, and auto parts from the US further signals improving trade conditions. Together, these updates have boosted investor confidence, providing a supportive backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin.
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