September Volatility on Display
Bitcoin has rebounded to $56,000 after a sharp sell off this week which saw us dip to $53,000, a strong area of support for Bitcoin. The sell off and volatility came as expected and was in line with the US stock markets which saw the worst week since March 2023. Important economic data is looming in the US, specifically rate cuts which have a 76% chance of a 25bp rate reduction and a 23% chance of a 50bp rate reduction which investors ultimately want to see.
Last week, Bitcoin ETFs were hit hard, with outflows totalling $705 million. This trend came to an end yesterday when we saw the first positive flow day in 10 days. Indicating the sell pressure has dried up and possibly the worst is behind us. We followed up today with another positive inflow day with $117 million.
Weekly Price Update
Election Result Will Soar Bitcoin
Bernstein, a major US financial firm managing $725 billion in assets, has predicted that Bitcoin could soar to $80k–$90k if Trump wins, reaching this target by the end of the year. However, a Harris victory may see Bitcoin test the $30k–$40k range, driven by the continuation of a challenging regulatory environment.
Bernstein believes a crypto friendly election outcome isn’t yet priced in, suggesting that a shift towards a more favourable crypto president could quickly reprice the crypto markets. From their analysis, it seems the market is already prepared for a Harris victory, and in our view, a drop to $30k is unlikely.
Trump VS Harris Showdown
Trump and Harris faced off in their first debate today, but digital assets were notably absent from the discussion. During the debate, Trump’s odds on Polymarket slipped by 3%, bringing his chances and Harris’s to a near tie at 49% each. Harris's performance surprised many as she displayed a level of composure rarely seen in her public appearances outside of rallies, which contrasted with expectations that Trump would dominate the debate. While the debate was relatively balanced, Harris may have edged ahead in terms of overall impact.
There is still uncertainty about Harris's stance on cryptocurrency policies. Her lack of discussion on this topic leaves a gap in understanding how her potential presidency might influence the crypto market.
SUI Leading the Market
Sui has been a standout performer during recent market turbulence, with its price up 15.71% over the past week. A layer-1 blockchain built using Move, a programming language developed by Facebook, Sui benefits from Move’s design that emphasises security and reliability through careful resource management and contract verification.
Advocates of Move argue that it offers advantages over other languages like Rust, used in Solana, and Solidity, used in Ethereum. Move is easier to learn and makes app development more efficient for developers. This has contributed to the rapid and robust growth of the Sui ecosystem.
Furthermore, the launch of the Grayscale SUI Trust in early August, which has nearly $1 million in assets, and the introduction of Sui’s native stablecoin, AUSD, have boosted DeFi activity and liquidity on the network. As a result, Sui’s total value locked (TVL) has surged from $342 million on August 5th to $679 million today.
Tron Controlling Market Share
Tron also outperformed majority of the market, jumping 19.45% over the past month. August was a standout, with revenue soaring by 38.1%. This was down to a new platform called SunPump which is a meme platform that drove users towards it and saw significant interest.
Trading volume surged to $8.5 billion, significantly up from July, and the number of holders grew by 4.92 million, highlighting the strong demand. The network burned 420.8 million TRX while minting only 157 million new TRX.
With an average of 1.8 million active users and the second highest total value locked which relates to it’s defi activity, Tron is currently outperforming blockchains like Solana. The stablecoin market cap on TRON has also reached an all-time high of $59 billion, second only to Ethereum.
Bull Market Strategy
Crypto is widely expected to be on the verge of its biggest bull run yet, driven by growing adoption from countries and institutions. Historically, the fourth quarter has been the strongest for the market. Whether your portfolio outlook is long term or short term, having a clear strategy is key. Too often, investors achieve life changing gains but fail to capitalise on profits or adjust their strategy, leading to diminished returns.
We want to maximise your portfolio’s potential, therefore it’s crucial to understand your investments and overall goals. Your broker is eager to assist and provide a lending hand, so don’t hesitate to reach out for support in refining your strategy.
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