Macro in Focus as Crypto Majors Hold Steady
The crypto market entered a period of stagnation this week, with Bitcoin ranging between $115,000 and $119,000 and Ethereum consolidating in the $3,500 to $3,900 zone. While many altcoins pulled back, investors remain focused on macro developments, particularly tonight’s US Federal Reserve rate decision.
There’s currently a 96% chance of no change, but the market is less concerned with the outcome itself and more focused on Jerome Powell’s tone. With political pressure mounting, notably from Trump, Powell's press conference could easily act as the catalyst for the next major move in the risk markets.
Strategy made one of their largest Bitcoin purchases today, acquiring $2.5 billion worth in a single buy. The announcement triggered a small dip in BTC, as it became clear the buying pressure had already been absorbed and BTC wasn’t moved.
Weekly Price Update
Largest BTC Sale in History - Price Drops Just 3%
In one of the largest Bitcoin sales in history, a 14-year dormant whale moved and sold 80,000 BTC, valued at just over $9 billion. Despite the scale, Bitcoin only dropped 3.00%, a surprisingly mild reaction that sends a strong message to institutional players. One of the core concerns for large capital allocators has always been liquidity. Can Bitcoin handle billion-dollar inflows or exits without significant slippage?
This week’s event provided a resounding answer. The market not only absorbed the full weight of the sell, but also maintained structural integrity, with no panic or cascading liquidations. For funds and treasuries looking to deploy serious size, this moment was a clear green light.
Bitcoin Chart Highlighting the Sell Effect
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ETH ETF Outpaces BTC as Supply Vanishes
This week marked a major shift, as for the first time ever, spot Ethereum ETFs outpaced Bitcoin in net flows. ETH ETFs attracted over $1.8 billion in inflows, compared to just $70 million across Bitcoin ETFs, with BTC funds seeing outflows on three of five days. It’s now Ethereum’s 16th consecutive day of positive ETF inflows.
Just like we covered in 2024 and early 2025 for BTC, ETH balances on exchanges are now rapidly depleting, as long-term holders and treasuries accumulate. In just two months, Ethereum treasury entities have acquired 2% of total supply, worth around $9 billion, and Standard Chartered projects this could increase tenfold, eventually holding 10% of all ETH in circulation.
ETH Balance on Exchanges
With ETH flowing off exchanges, treasuries locking up supply, and ETF demand accelerating, the setup for a classic supply squeeze is forming. If inflows continue while liquid supply dries up, price discovery could accelerate sharply, just as it did for BTC. Only this time, Ethereum may be the one leading the charge.
Strategic ETH Reserve Tracker Chart
- Ethereum strategic reserves increased by 807,681 ETH over the past week, lifting total holdings to 2.13% of supply.
US Advances Trade Agreements, Crypto Unmoved
This week, the United States announced progress on two major trade fronts, signalling a temporary easing in global tensions. First, a new trade agreement was reached with the European Union. Second, the US and China agreed to extend their existing trade pause by 90 days, offering a short-term window of stability in one of the world’s most sensitive geopolitical relationships.
The stock market surged on the news, with futures hitting record highs as investors priced in reduced global risk. However, crypto’s reaction was brief. Prices initially climbed on the improved sentiment, but quickly faded, leading to a gradual bleed across the board as enthusiasm tapered off.