Crypto Consolidates As Global Markets Rise
This week, crypto markets have remained relatively stable compared to the intense volatility we’ve seen in recent weeks. Bitcoin has hovered around the $105,000 mark for several days, briefly peaking at $108,000 as it consolidates after its recent swings. ETF flows have remained quietly strong for both BTC and ETH, despite an outlier day of outflows for both assets yesterday. Meanwhile, Strategy continues to build its Bitcoin treasury aggressively, purchasing an additional $530 million worth of BTC yesterday.
While momentum in Bitcoin has cooled around the $105,000 level, this period of stability provides the perfect window to position ahead of potential catalysts on the horizon. With upcoming macro events, ETF developments, and key network upgrades approaching, markets could see renewed interest and those positioned early will be best placed to capture the upside.
Weekly Price Update
Solana's Fundamentals Outpace Price
Solana just delivered one of the strongest weeks in crypto history in terms of developments, marking a defining moment for the chain as its ecosystem accelerates across multiple fronts. America’s first SOL and staking attached ETF launches tomorrow under the $SSK ticker by REX-Osprey, cementing staking as a yield-bearing asset class in traditional markets and opening the door for more Solana based ETFs, including spot products, in the near future, a critical milestone for broader institutional adoption.
Unlike a normal ETF, this staking ETF enables investors to earn passive income through staking rewards, with yields that can potentially offset management fees, making it a more attractive and cost efficient product for long-term holders. Additionally, by staking SOL, the ETF directly secures the Solana network, strengthening its decentralisation and resilience. This launch also sets a positive precedent for potential Ethereum staking ETFs, as regulatory greenlights for staking products on one chain could increase the likelihood of approvals for others.
Meanwhile, xStocks tokenised equities went live on SOL, enabling 24/7 trading of 55+ major stocks like NVDA, TSLA, and MSTR on Solana’s DEXs Jupiter and Raydium, driving over $1.5M in volume from 1,500+ participants on day one. A clear testament to the chain’s liquidity, speed, and institutional grade infrastructure. Solana also surpassed $19B in weekly DEX volume alongside over $100M in weekly cross chain inflows, with $70M flowing in from Ethereum alone.
Network fundamentals continue to lead the industry with 14 consecutive weeks of revenue dominance and nearing all-time high daily transactions, metrics that institutions definitely take into account when allocating capital. As more ETFs launch and with the long awaited Fire Dancer upgrade timeline aligning with this adoption wave, institutions are starting to increasingly see Solana as the most ready and scalable chain.
Swyftx Acquires Caleb & Brown in Landmark AU$100M Deal
In a major development for the Australian crypto space, Brisbane-based exchange Swyftx has acquired Melbourne brokerage Caleb & Brown for over AU$100 million. This landmark deal, the largest crypto M&A in the region, extends Swyftx’s reach into the U.S. market, where Caleb & Brown has built a strong foothold among investors.
Key Considerations
The acquisition of Caleb & Brown by Swyftx significantly broadens the company's market reach, especially in the U.S., while also reinforcing regional growth. However, it also raises concerns about potential reductions in personalisation, which could alienate clients who cherish tailored services, and may trigger restructuring issues impacting service quality.
At UpTrade, we’re committed to providing personalised, expert service as an independent, boutique crypto brokerage, focused solely on your needs and not shareholders. If you’re concerned about how market transitions may impact your investments, book a call with our team today. We’re available 24/7 to review your holdings and ensure you’re well-positioned for the market cycle.
U.S. Stocks Hit Record Highs As Rate Cut Odds Rise
U.S. equities surged to fresh all-time highs this week, a remarkable display of market strength that comes despite escalating tariff disputes and geopolitical tensions. This resilience highlights investor confidence in the future of financial markets. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that interest rate cuts might have already materialised if not for concerns over tariffs and President Trump’s economic policies. In a nuanced shift yesterday, Powell suggested it is too early to make a decision on a July cut yet, which can be interpreted as a shift of tone, resulting in lifting the probability of a July rate cut to 18%.
S&P500 Price Chart
President Trump continues to advocate for aggressive rate reductions, calling for rates as low as 1% an extraordinary proposal, given the Fed has never cut rates at a time when stocks sit at record highs. Such an unprecedented policy move could flood markets with extra liquidity, potentially fuelling further gains across equities and igniting renewed appetite for risk assets, including crypto.
Public Companies Outpace ETFs in Bitcoin Accumulation
Public companies bought more bitcoin than ETFs for the third quarter in a row, highlighting a powerful shift in institutional strategy to boost shareholder value and future proof their balance sheets. According to CNBC citing Bitcoin Treasuries data, public companies grew their bitcoin balance by about 18% in Q2, acquiring roughly 131,000 BTC, while ETFs increased their holdings by 8%, or around 111,000 BTC, during the same period.
This trend shows firms rapidly adopting the Strategy playbook in a more crypto friendly regulatory environment, with Trump’s March executive order for a U.S. bitcoin reserve reinforcing bitcoin’s legitimacy at the highest level. Currently, ETFs still remain the largest holders by entity with over 1.4 million BTC (around 6.8% of supply), while public companies hold approximately 855,000 BTC (about 4%). The fact that corporates are ramping up faster than ETFs is a signal that boardrooms are no longer ignoring bitcoin.
This corporate adoption flywheel could be just getting started as competition heats up to lock in exposure before bitcoin’s next leg higher.
Q3 Roadmap: What Past Post-Halving Years Reveal
We’ve just entered Q3 in what is both a post-halving and post U.S. election year, an alignment that historically delivers strong performance for crypto markets. Looking back, in 2017, Bitcoin gained +80.41% in Q3, while in 2021 it gained +25.01%. Ethereum also posted solid returns during these periods, with +9.87% in 2017 and +31.86% in 2021. Interestingly, both cycles showed a similar pattern for Bitcoin with July and August being green months, followed by a small pullback in September to round out the quarter.
Given current market structures, this historical seasonality suggests that if the pattern repeats, we could see strength in the coming two months before potential cooling as Q3 closes. While past data isn’t a guarantee, it provides a useful framework to navigate positioning and risk management heading into this critical quarter for the crypto cycle.
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