Bitcoin Smashes 100k Target

Bitcoin has surged to $105,000 this week, its highest level since February, driven by a wave of positive global developments. Fresh trade negotiations between the US, China, and the UK have lifted market sentiment, providing just enough good news to trigger a powerful move from a market that had been bottling energy for weeks. The breakout is now technically confirmed, with Bitcoin closing another weekly candle above the Bull Market Support Band, a key metric we’ve tracked over the past fortnight. Meanwhile, US inflation has cooled to 2.3%, lower than expectations and the lowest level since 2021, sparking renewed risk-on appetite across both equities and crypto. Even President Trump chimed in, claiming the stock market is "gonna go a lot higher," a statement markets seem to be following.

At the same time, crypto is becoming unavoidable in modern portfolios, often finding its way in without people even realising, through ETF exposure, institutional funds, and now Coinbase being listed in the S&P 500. The growing relevance of Bitcoin was further highlighted this week as it overtook Amazon to become the fifth largest asset in the world. Not to be overlooked, Ethereum also successfully rolled out its Pectra upgrade, enhancing performance and solidifying its foundation for future innovation.

Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band

As we’ve covered many times before, the Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) has been a key signal in previous cycles. Historically, when BTC closes two consecutive candles above the band, it tends to ignite a massive rally. We saw this play out in October 2023 with a 150% surge and again in October 2024 with a 65% move, averaging a 105% gain from prior breakouts. While diminishing returns are expected as Bitcoin grows in market cap and requires more capital to move, even a 40% rally from the recent breakout would take BTC to around $135,000. That would be a significant milestone aligning with growing global investor confidence, the global M2 and BTC correlation, and easing macro headwinds.

Weekly Price Update

Coinbase Joins The S&P 500

Coinbase just made history as the first cryptocurrency company to join the S&P 500 index. This milestone is a huge deal for the crypto industry, it’s like getting a blue chip stamp of approval from Wall Street. Being added to such a prestigious index signals that the crypto sector has truly arrived in mainstream finance. Even Coinbase’s own CFO celebrated the inclusion as a “major milestone” for the entire crypto sector and “a signal of where the world is heading”. The news had Wall Street's interest, as Coinbase’s stock jumped as index funds rushed to buy in.

Looking ahead, this moment closes the gap between crypto and traditional finance. Millions of people who hold S&P 500 index funds will now indirectly own a piece of a crypto company without even trying, bringing crypto into 401(k)s and retirement portfolios. The industry leaders and community are overwhelmed with excitement, and analysts have called the inclusion a “dramatic turnaround” for the crypto industry under a friendlier regulatory landscape. This major moment shows how crypto is steadily blending into mainstream markets, and it may pave the way for other blockchain-based companies to go public and join major indices in the future.

Bitcoin Banana Zone

Long term members of UpTrade Alpha may recognise this chart which we published back in December 2024, representing Bitcoin and its Banana Zone which refers to the explosive price action during the parabolic phase of Bitcoin's market cycles. It highlights the transition from the "1st Correction Phase,", to an intense price rally driven by speculative demand, euphoric sentiment, and FOMO (fear of missing out). This chart has been rising in popularity recently with the likes of Raoul Pal using it publicly.

Tariff Trade War Negotiations

The U.S. just slashed tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 90 days, with China cutting its own from 125% to 10%, marking the biggest deal in global trade since tariff tensions began. This comes hot on the heels of Friday’s U.S. and UK deal, where despite the UK only making up 3-4% of U.S. trade, the announcement alone sent Bitcoin soaring past $103K. Now with China on board, the most critical and complex trade partner, the domino effect we predicted is officially underway. The short term relief is expected to stabilise global supply chains, lower input costs, and unlock a wave of risk-on sentiment across markets.

With the U.S. and China agreeing to deeper negotiations over the next 90 days, we could be looking at a new wave of trade compromise that brings even more major economies to the table. If a small trade partner like the UK triggered such a sharp Bitcoin rally, the potential upside as the remaining 97% of trade gets addressed is enormous. As this momentum builds, crypto stands to benefit massively, especially as Bitcoin continues positioning itself as a global macro asset riding the wave of renewed investor confidence and de-escalating trade tensions.

Weekly Narrative Performance

Over the past week, the Memecoin category surged 38.3%, outperforming major sectors like AI , DeFi, and Layer 1s. This performance aligns with a rotation narrative predicted in our recent Patreon videos, where we mentioned a risk-on progression from Bitcoin to AI and then to memecoins, similar to trends seen in 2024. Such a rotation reaffirms the return of bullish market sentiment and risk appetite, with memecoins often acting as high-volatility, leveraged beta plays in bullish conditions.

Ethereum was the top performer this week, up 47.6%, while Bitcoin gained 7.6%. Two weeks ago, we highlighted the Ethereum/Bitcoin chart, which had reached a long-term support zone. That call has played out, with Ethereum bouncing aggressively off the bottom. Historically, Ethereum outperformance creates a positive environment for the broader altcoin market, and that’s exactly what we’ve seen as many alts followed with strong moves. With Bitcoin dominance looking like it’s potentially topped, and if Ethereum continues to show strength, we expect this to carry the rest of the altcoin market higher with it.

Ethereum/Bitcoin Chart

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