Bitcoin Price Fluctuations

The digital asset market has experienced significant gains this past week, with Bitcoin rising from the week's lows of $57,200 to a current price of $65,850, marking a 25% increase. This surge represents a monthly high for Bitcoin, indicating a bullish shift in the market.

The recent sell pressure from the German government has subsided as they have liquidated all 3,846 of their remaining Bitcoin, totalling $240 million USD. This liquidation is seen as a bullish event for investors, as evident in the price increase. Additionally, with the launch of the Ethereum ETF now confirmed for the 23rd of July and several other positive developments on the horizon, we expect this momentum to continue for Bitcoin and the overall crypto market.

Furthermore, during a recent CNBC interview, BlackRock ($10.6 trillion asset management) CEO Larry Fink admitted he was "wrong" about Bitcoin, now referring to the decentralised asset as "digital gold" and a "legitimate" financial instrument.

Bitcoin Weekly Price Chart

Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump

On July 13, 2024, a deeply disturbing event took place during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. Several shots were fired at former President Donald Trump in an assassination attempt. Despite the shooter being neutralised, one crowd member was fatally wounded. Trump was grazed by a bullet in the ear and was quickly rushed off the stage by Secret Service agents. Despite the chaos, Trump stood and chanted “Fight” to rally his supporters.

This incident marks a significant moment in American history. Since the assassination attempt, Trump's chances of winning the presidential campaign have surged from 60% to 69%, as he reaffirmed his "Make America Great Again" mission to his supporters.

Crypto Market Implications

Following this event, the crypto markets reacted extremely positively, with prices surging from $57.5k to $65k today. This reaction correlates with Trump's increased chances of winning the presidential campaign, which many crypto investors view as a bullish scenario for the industry. Given Trump's pro-crypto stance, investors are anticipating strong growth and adoption of cryptocurrencies if he is elected in November, solidifying crypto as a major, mature asset class.

Conversely, if the assassination attempt had succeeded, leading to Biden becoming the leading candidate for the presidency, it is likely that the markets would have experienced a significant downturn due to uncertainty about the Democrats' stance on crypto. Additionally, such an event could have sparked civil unrest, potentially triggering a black swan event for all financial markets.

J.D. Vance as VP: Impact on Crypto

Donald Trump selected Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate on July 15th, during the first day of the Republican National Convention. This announcement came just two days after an assassination attempt on Trump and amidst widespread calls for Joe Biden to drop out of the race following a poorly rated debate performance on June 27th. For the crypto industry, Vance's potential influence is significant given Trump's pro-crypto stance and Vance’s strong favorability towards the industry.

Vance is the first candidate on a presidential ticket to hold crypto, with disclosures showing he owns between $100,000 and $250,000 in BTC on Coinbase. Additionally, Vance has been highly critical of SEC Commissioner Gary Gensler's approach to regulating blockchain and crypto, calling it the opposite of what it should be.

ETH ETF approval

The SEC has announced it is aiming to launch trading of Ethereum ETFs on the 23rd of July, requesting one final application from issuers such as Blackrock and Grayscale. With recent anticipation from investors now being confirmed with this official announcement, the significant milestone of ETHs ETF launch has led Ethereum bouncing from weekly lows of $3,024 to a current price of $3,469, marking a 13.9% increase.

Looking back at Bitcoin's ETF launch on January 11th, the price surged to all-time highs of $73,000, a 61% increase. If Ethereum follows a similar trajectory and breaks it's all-time highs, it would represent a 40% increase from today's current price and a 61% increase from current prices would take Ethereum to $5,602.

Currently, 27.3% of Ethereum's circulating supply is staked. Investors are able to stake ETH in order to validate transactions on the blockchain. This locks up their capital, subsequently reducing the amount of ETH available for trading or spending. This mechanism is part of Ethereum's "Proof of Stake" system, which differs from Bitcoin's “Proof of Work” (mining) technology. This decrease in circulating supply can exert upward pressure on the price, as fewer ETH are available for purchase.

If Ethereum ETFs attract a large amount of inflows like Bitcoin ETFs experienced, Ethereum's price could see a more significant increase. This is because the reduced circulating supply from staking means there is even less ETH available for trading on the market. Consequently, increased demand and buy pressure from ETF issuers and retail investors could drive up the price more rapidly due to the limited availability.

Donald Trump Bitcoin Conference

Despite the recent events of Trump's attempted assassination, he is still scheduled to speak at Bitcoins largest convention in Nashville Tennessee next week from July 25-27. The conference aims to promote Bitcoins adoption across the traditional finance system. Before the assassination attempt Trump was favoured to conquer the state of Tennessee and since the attack those numbers may have increased even greater in favour. This Highlights that the speech's address is likely to emphasise the worldwide significance of cryptocurrency and its future role in the financial system, rather than solely targeting local political gain.

The event will be live-streamed worldwide and will feature speeches from high-profile speakers such as MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood, and entertainer Russell Brand. Trump's position on cryptocurrency and Bitcoin has notably evolved, with him calling for the creation of a "crypto army" as part of his U.S. campaign. We anticipate a bullish sentiment leading up to his speech and expect Trump to further advocate for the adoption of cryptocurrency if he is elected president.

Bitcoin ETF Flows

Bitcoin ETF flows have been positive for the past 8 trading days, with net inflows totalling over $1.914 billion over this period, including $422.5 million on July 16 alone. This trend is extremely bullish, indicating renewed interest in Bitcoin ETF exposure. Although ETFs have experienced a decline in volume, the positive inflow means that there is low sell pressure and there are less investors wanting to exit there Bitcoin positions.

Bitcoin ETF Flow Table (US$m)

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