Introduction

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This week delivered another wave of volatility across global markets, with fear rising sharply in both crypto and equities. The swing in macro sentiment has been equally dramatic, the probability of a December rate cut collapsed from 70% to 35%, only to rebound back toward 85%. Despite the uncertainty, crypto has shown early signs of stabilisation. Bitcoin appears to have found a local bottom around $80K, marking a 35% pullback from last month’s highs, and has since rebounded roughly 12% to $87K. Ethereum has shown even stronger relative strength, bouncing 13% from its recent low of $2.6K, offering a bit of relief after several weeks of heavy selling.
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In a major step forward for institutional adoption, Texas has become the first U.S. state to purchase Bitcoin, allocating $10 million into BlackRock’s IBIT product. Announced by the Texas Blockchain Council, this move marks a powerful endorsement of Bitcoin at the state level and sets a precedent for other U.S. states building digital asset reserves or treasury strategies.
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FED Rate cut increasing again / Hasset Leading for take over

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​​Market expectations around U.S. monetary policy have shifted sharply this week. The odds of a 25bps rate cut in December have surged to 85%, up from just 35% when BTC was at $80k, following dovish commentary from key Fed officials such as Chris Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. Both pointed to softening employment data and easing inflation pressures, signalling that conditions are moving in favour of renewed monetary easing. This pivot has helped calm markets after a volatile month, with traders increasingly positioning around the prospect of a December cut.
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At the same time, Kevin Hassett has become President Trump’s top choice to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted there is a “very good chance” the new Chair will be announced before Christmas. Hassett’s background, including his role as a chief economic advisor to Trump and his position on Coinbase’s advisory council has sparked speculation that a leadership change could tilt the Fed toward a more market friendly and potentially more accommodative stance. While not yet confirmed, the combination of rising cut expectations and a possible shift in Fed leadership adds another catalyst to an already sensitive macro environment.

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Ethereum/Bitcoin showing signs of breaking out, BTC 80k

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Ethereum is beginning to show one of its first constructive technical developments in several months, with ETH/BTC attempting to move above its multi-month descending resistance, a structure we’ve been tracking within UpTrade Alpha. This is happening alongside a gradual decline in BTC dominance, a combination that has previously aligned with short periods of relative ETH strength, though this is not predictive on its own. On the USD pair, ETH has also maintained the $2.8K weekly area, holding a support region throughout recent market volatility.
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Institutionally, Bitmine (Tom Lee’s fund) has continued to accumulate ETH, now holding more than 3% of the total supply and communicating a longer-term goal of reaching 5%. This accumulation, combined with the ongoing technical shifts, makes Ethereum an important chart to watch heading into December, purely from a market structure standpoint. While these developments are notable, overall conditions remain selective rather than indicative of a broad altcoin cycle.

JPMORGAN Shorts MSTR

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JPMorgan has come under scrutiny following viral accusations on X that the bank may be coordinating an attack on Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy by taking on large short exposure to MSTR stock. These claims spread quickly through influencer circles, with some traders alleging that JPMorgan was sitting on a short position that could be squeezed by a sharp upside move. However, skeptics have countered that SEC filings show JPMorgan with long exposure, small put positions, and no disclosed outright shorts. The debate intensified after the bank published a November 20 research note warning MicroStrategy could face index-related headwinds due to new rules impacting companies with significant digital asset holdings, estimating $2.8 billion in potential MSCI outflows. The report triggered backlash across Bitcoin communities, with hashtags like “Liquidate JPMorgan” gaining traction, although neither JPMorgan nor MicroStrategy has confirmed any of the circulating claims.
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One interpretation of these rumours is that they highlight the fragility of MicroStrategy’s leveraged Bitcoin strategy if sentiment or index rules were to shift abruptly. The theory being discussed suggests a scenario in which institutions could benefit from short pressure on MSTR combined with negative research commentary, making it harder for MicroStrategy to issue equity at a premium. In such a hypothetical case, reduced ability to raise capital might destabilise its BTC accumulation model, potentially leading to shareholder dilution or forced selling - a dynamic that, if it occurred, could theoretically allow larger players to accumulate at lower prices. This remains speculative, but it illustrates how sensitive MicroStrategy’s model is to market structure, index rules, and macro perception.

Polymarket US Opens

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The blockchain based prediction market platform Polymarket has just received regulatory approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The approval represents a major milestone for prediction markets after nearly four years of restricted U.S. access, following a 2022 CFTC enforcement action that fined the platform $1.4 million and ordered it to cease operations. Unlike Polymarket's previous direct blockchain-based model, the new structure operates as an intermediated platform integrated with traditional financial infrastructure, where American users will trade through futures commission merchants (FCMs) and licensed brokerages, with custody and regulatory reporting handled through standard market channels. While the CFTC approval is now official, Polymarket has not announced a specific launch date. Once rolled out, US citizens will be able to place predictions on a wide spectrum of political, macroeconomics, sports, crypto related outcomes, rivaling Kalshi but with a stronger focus on crypto native users and interfaces. Polymarket has significantly expanded its market presence and strategic positioning through partnerships with Google and Yahoo Finance, as well as receiving a transformative $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange in October 2025. Polymarket’s founder and CEO is quoted saying the decision lets the company operate in a way that reflects the “maturity and transparency” expected under the US regulatory framework, framing the order as a kind of clean restart.

MONAD TGE

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Monad mainnet launched on November 24th alongside its token generation event (TGE). The $MON token sale on Coinbase exceeded expectations with 85,820 participants raising US $269 million in commitments (1.43x oversubscribed) with tokens sold at 0.025c. The TGE of Monad was initially underwhelming, dropping below ICO price to 0.024c within the first hour of trading, but subsequently showing strength of recovery rallying to over 0.040c in just over 24 hours. Over 50% of the total supply remains locked under vesting schedules, with the team holding 27%, investors 19.7%, Labs Treasury 4%, and 38.5% allocated to ecosystem development, a distribution structure that sparked debate about the unusually high team allocation and potential future selling pressure. The subsequent performance of Monad’s TGE reflects broader industry dynamics around new launches and investor’s appetite despite the fragile recovery phase and massive pullback in the crypto market.

New Zealand introduces digital currency to financial education program from 2026.

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New Zealand has announced the introduction of digital currency and blockchain education into its national financial literacy curriculum starting in 2026, with mandatory implementation for students in Years 1 through 10 beginning in 2027. Education Minister Erica Stanford revealed the comprehensive program in November 2025, which will cover modern payment systems including digital assets, token price tracking, and market indicators as part of preparing students for an increasingly digital economy. The curriculum adopts a progressive learning structure where younger students in Years 1-5 will focus on foundational financial skills like earning, spending, saving, and managing bank accounts, while students in Years 6-10 will advance to more complex topics including investments, interest rates, taxation, insurance, and how digital assets function as technology for transferring value. New Zealand’s decision to teach digital currency and blockchain in its national curriculum marks a major milestone with recognition of crypto as a legitimate part of modern finance, and lays groundwork for wider public adoption and exposure.

UpTrade Recap Of Australia Crypto Con

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UpTrade wrapped up a huge weekend at Australian Crypto Convention, where we attended as a title sponsor and had one of the strongest presences at the event. The conference was packed from start to finish, and it was incredible to meet so many of our brokerage clients and Alpha Pro members in person. Putting faces to names, having real conversations, and hearing first-hand how people are navigating the market was a major highlight for the entire team. We also connected with hundreds of new attendees across the floor, with constant traffic through the UpTrade booth and nonstop conversations throughout both days.
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We’ll be sharing full recordings of Kane’s talk on the UpTrade Stage, as well as George’s two sessions,  one with Tax On Chain and Mastering the Markets discussing SMSFs, and another panel appearance alongside the Pizzino brothers. It was an amazing weekend for the community, and we’re excited to bring that momentum into the final weeks of the year.

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