Bitcoin Rejection Sparks Market Wide Pullback

Bitcoin pushed as high as $117.8K heading into the FOMC meeting, a move that was widely anticipated as bullish. But, as we had cautioned, the potential for a “sell the news” reaction played out, with investors taking profits and trading the catalyst aggressively. BTC retraced all the way down to the $111K support we’ve highlighted, reaffirming its importance as a key level. At the same time, the TOTAL3 chart (altcoin market cap excluding BTC and ETH) failed an important breakout, while BTC dominance also failed to break down from a key zone we’ve been monitoring. Historically, these dynamics have often set the stage for altcoin outperformance, hinting if they successfully break these structures we might see this.

Narratives are also shifting quickly beneath the surface. The decentralised perpetual exchange battle has taken center stage, with Hyperliquid facing fresh competition from the likes of Aster and Avantis. Aster, in particular, has exploded in growth over the past week, rapidly capturing market share and drawing significant trader attention.

Meanwhile, exchange tokens have also quietly been some of the strongest performers during the pullback. BNB not only held firm but went on to break into four digits, hitting the $1,000 milestone and setting a new all-time high. Looking ahead into October, BTC’s broader bullish structure remains intact, supported by strong catalysts such as the potential for another rate cut on the horizon.

Total-3 Chart

- One of the most important charts for altcoins and for gauging the potential of a market-wide rally is the TOTAL3 chart, which tracks the market cap of all cryptocurrencies excluding BTC and ETH. Recently, it ran up to resistance at $1.15T, right on the verge of an all-time high breakout. However, that level proved too strong to breach, leading to the latest correction.

Weekly Price Update

Aster Surges as Hyperliquid Rival on BNB Chain

Despite the broader market volatility this week, Aster has emerged as one of the strongest performers. Positioned as a Hyperliquid competitor but built on BNB Chain, Aster is backed by Binance founder CZ, giving it instant credibility and deep ecosystem ties.

Early on-chain metrics are already impressive. Aster has become the third-highest revenue-generating protocol, pulling in $7.12M in 24 hours, far surpassing Hyperliquid’s $2.79M. It also ranks as the #1 perpetual DEX by trading volume, clearing over $11B daily, with much of this activity driven by the highly anticipated airdrop campaign that ends in two weeks, incentivising users to farm the platform aggressively.

While Hyperliquid has gained recognition for its revenue model and buybacks, Aster’s edge lies in its dark pool feature, designed for whales and large investors who want to hide their orders. On Hyperliquid, every large trade is visible, leaving stop losses or liquidations exposed to targeting, whereas Aster provides protection and discretion. With a market cap 3.5x smaller than Hyperliquid’s, the asymmetry is clear, if adoption continues, Aster has significant room to run. Notably, it still hasn’t been listed on any tier-1 exchanges or Binance itself.

Crypto Correction Setting the Stage for Q4 Rally?

The week opened with a sharp sell-off across crypto, as over $1.6B in longs were liquidated, with Bitcoin sliding below $112K and Ethereum breaking under $4,200. The move stood in stark contrast to equities and commodities, both of which pushed to fresh all-time highs, underscoring the divergence in performance between crypto and traditional markets.

Seasonality remains a factor, with September historically one of the weakest months for crypto — 8 of the past 12 Septembers have closed negative, averaging returns of -3.77%. Last week’s FOMC meeting reinforced this pattern, as markets sold off following the announcement, triggering a wave of liquidations and leveraged unwinds.

Bitcoin Price Chart

- We were watching the $117.5K level as the key price to flip for bullish continuation, but resistance proved too strong, sending Bitcoin lower to $111K after failing to hold. Despite the pullback, Bitcoin’s structure remains constructive as it has now retested the bull market support band, an indicator we track closely inside Alpha.

Looking ahead, the Q4 outlook remains constructive, supported by continued Fed easing, potential ETF approvals, and crypto’s historically strong seasonal momentum. Over the past 12 years, October has closed positive 10 times, averaging gains of 21.9%. The flush of leveraged positions this week may ultimately prove healthy, setting the stage for a more durable rally into year-end.

Upcoming Plasma Launch

We’re excited to announce that XPL, one of the most anticipated token launches of the year, will be available to trade on Thursday, 25th September through UpTrade. ICO participants are already up 15x on their positions based on pre-market valuations, so expect heightened volatility as trading begins and some early investors take profits.

XPL runs on Plasma, a blockchain built specifically for stablecoins, delivering the infrastructure for the emerging digital dollar economy. Plasma enables stablecoins at scale with $0 transaction fees on USDT, full EVM compatibility, and is the fastest blockchain in history to reach $1B TVL, now sitting at $3B TVL and ranked top 8. On top of this network sits Plasma One, a neobank platform offering a debit card that pays 10% APY on stablecoin deposits and up to 4% cashback on spending. Backed by Tether, XPL is positioned to ride this wave by offering fast, low-cost global payments and challenging current web 3 settlement layers like Tron.

With U.S. policymakers approving the “Genius Act” to accelerate stablecoin adoption, and United States Secretary of the Treasury , Scott Bessent suggesting the stablecoin market could hit $2 trillion by 2028, or even exceed that, XPL is positioned at the very center of this growth story

Inside UpTrade Alpha: Past Week's Highlights

This past week in UpTrade Alpha delivered some of our most valuable sessions yet. Members gained insights from “Psychology of Selling” with CEO Jeff, “Inside the Mind of a Broker” with George, and a Q4 Outlook with the Head of Research at Apollo Crypto, who runs Australia’s most successful crypto fund. On the trading side, our Aster call surged 50% in just two days, highlighting the type of timely opportunities that Alpha members have access to in real time.

Hidden Risks of Centralised Exchanges

According to a Bloomberg investigation, Crypto.com allegedly suffered a cyberattack in 2023 that was quietly swept under the rug. A group known as Scattered Spider breached employee accounts and accessed the personal information of a handful of individuals. While Crypto.com claims no customer funds were touched, the incident underscores the persistent risks and lack of transparency across centralised exchanges. This is not an isolated case, we’ve seen Coinbase hit with a $400M attack and, more infamously, the FTX collapse, which left millions of users burned.

In a sector riddled with bad actors and cyberattacks, rebuilding trust requires more than PR statements, it demands stronger client relationships and transparency. That’s where UpTrade stands apart: clients receive 1-on-1 broker assistance with full clarity and control over how funds are allocated and moved, offering a transparent, trust-first framework that centralised exchanges consistently fail to deliver.

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