Crypto Enters Q4: ETF Inflows, Stablecoin Narrative, and Market Signals

Crypto enters Q4 with renewed ETF inflows, a bullish September close, intensifying stablecoin competition, and heightened regulatory uncertainty from the U.S. government shutdown.

Bitcoin is showing signs of strength after last week’s pullback, trading around $116K with $117K as the next critical breakout level. A bullish divergence on the daily RSI points to momentum favouring the upside, though short-term volatility remains a risk.

Meanwhile, gold hit another all-time high at $3,870 per ounce, and some analysts suggest Bitcoin may be mirroring gold’s trajectory with an eight-week lag. If this correlation holds, BTC could be on the verge of a strong Q4 rally and new price discovery, with short-term pullbacks still a key factor to watch.

Weekly Price Update

ETF Inflows Return as Institutions Step Back In

After a stretch of weakness, Ethereum ETF inflows have flipped positive, breaking a five-day outflow streak with $546.9M in new capital, a strong reversal that coincided with major assets holding key support levels. Bitcoin ETFs also came back to life with $510M in inflows after a muted week of volumes.

Institutional allocations drove the flows, with Fidelity leading the charge, adding $298.7M in BTC and $202.2M in ETH. BlackRock expanded its ETHA trust with 37,850 ETH ($154.2M), while IBIT recorded a modest $46.6M BTC outflow. Beyond ETFs, corporates are also quietly tightening supply. Tether bought 8,888 BTC (~$1B) on September 30th, consistent with its policy of allocating up to 15% of profits into Bitcoin reserves.

Despite ongoing caution across the market, these inflows and balance sheet accumulations reflect growing conviction into Q4. With supply thinning and institutional participation building, the backdrop looks increasingly constructive for Bitcoin and Ethereum heading into the next leg of the cycle.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Total Cumulative Flow (US$m)

- October 2024 marked a clear surge in BTC ETF inflows, and October 2025 could be shaping up the same way. Source: Farside Investors

September Monthly Close: Setting Up Q4

Bitcoin closed September with a 5.16% monthly gain, rebounding from a retrace to $108K support and finishing strong at $114K. October has been one of Bitcoin’s best months, posting gains in 10 of the past 12 years with an average return of 21.9%. More importantly, in the 4/4 instances where September closed green, Q4 delivered major upside momentum.

Bitcoin Historic Monthly Returns

Ethereum cooled off after four straight months of strength, closing September slightly red. Still, ETH ended above the March and December 2024 highs, keeping its broader bullish structure intact despite the pause.

Looking ahead, the setup into Q4 is constructive. With two more rate cuts expected, rising M2 money supply, and last week’s leveraged flush reducing fragility, conditions are aligning for a more sustainable rally into year-end.

US Government Shutdown: Implications for Crypto

A government shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass the laws required to fund federal operations, forcing the government to halt or scale back services. This is the first shutdown in seven years, and it comes at a critical moment for markets.

For crypto, the impact is immediate in terms of uncertainty and delays. Key functions such as economic data releases and regulatory reviews are paused or slowed, which could affect timelines for ETF approvals, new crypto product filings, and overall regulatory clarity. Congressional focus will also shift away from advancing important legislation like the digital asset market structure bill, further stalling progress on long-term policy. This environment naturally dampens institutional inflows as investors hesitate amid uncertainty.

That said, there are signs of constructive movement. In the lead-up to the shutdown, both the SEC and CFTC pledged closer cooperation, stressing the need for harmonisation around spot crypto trading rules. If followed through, this could help reduce overlap, delays, and regulatory conflicts once operations resume, laying groundwork for a clearer framework in the months ahead.

What's Next for XPL and the Stablecoin Industry?

Stablecoins remain one of the strongest narratives in crypto, with clear product market fit as they bridge traditional finance and blockchain. By design, stablecoins maintain a stable value, typically pegged to the U.S. dollar and backed by real-world assets (RWAs) such as cash or short-term U.S. Treasuries. They are the backbone of on-chain liquidity, payments, and DeFi adoption.

Total Stable Coin Supply

The recent launch of Plasma (XPL) has sparked excitement as it positions itself as a direct competitor to Tron (TRX), which currently sits inside the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap. Plasma’s consumer product, Plasma One, aims to become a “Web3 Revolut/Venmo,” offering free, instant stablecoin transfers, while the chain itself is designed to expand into a Layer 1 ecosystem of apps and communities.

That said, the biggest challenge for Plasma is adoption speed. The majority of stablecoin activity remains concentrated on Ethereum and Tron due to their maturity and reliability, while Plasma still needs to prove its durability before major USDT liquidity shifts onto its network. Building trust and adoption will take time.

Still, early traction has been strong. Within a week of launch, Plasma’s stablecoin market cap surged to $5.81B, compared to Tron’s $76.93B. Plasma’s edge comes from being backed by Tether’s team, with USDT making up ~60% of all stablecoin supply. The promise of zero-cost transfers and built-in yield integrations with protocols like Aave and Ethena could accelerate retail onboarding and institutional adoption.

UpTrade at Token2049 Singapore

This week, UpTrade is on the ground at Token 2049 in Singapore, one of the most important global gatherings for the crypto industry. Our focus is clear, to uncover key insights, identify emerging narratives, and spot trends that can deliver value to the UpTrade Alpha community.

Beyond market themes, the event brings together some of the brightest founders, builders, and investors, offering the chance to engage directly with those shaping the next wave of adoption. For us, Token 2049 is not about passively attending, it’s about engaging, exploring, and bringing back perspectives that can translate into real, actionable edge for our members.

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