Bitcoin Approaching ATH!

Bitcoin has surged to $107,000, delivering the highest weekly close in history and today, we’ve locked in the highest daily close ever recorded. The global macro backdrop is gradually shifting in favour of risk assets, as interest rates begin to ease across major economies, including Australia, where the RBA cut rates by 0.25% this week. At the same time, ETF inflows have flipped positive, signalling strong and growing institutional demand under the surface.

On the regulatory front, momentum continues to build. India’s Supreme Court declared that crypto should be regulated, not banned, echoing a global shift towards legitimisation. Meanwhile, in the US, President Trump’s Executive Director of Digital Assets called crypto “the next generation of finance” a powerful endorsement from the highest levels of policymaking.

Weekly Price Update

Blockchain Staking Ratios

The graphic compares the staking ratios of major blockchain projects, with SUI leading at 76.4%, followed closely by Aleo, Aptos and TAO. These high staking ratios indicate that a substantial portion of the circulating supply is locked up, reducing the amount of tokens available on the open market. This creates artificial scarcity, which can have powerful implications if demand rises, particularly during a bull market or “altseason.”

Currently, the market is awaiting Bitcoin to make a decisive move, especially a breakout past its all-time high (ATH). If BTC surges, we expect altcoins to follow with accelerated momentum as capital rotates into higher-beta plays. In such an environment, projects with high staking ratios may experience outsized price appreciation due to supply shocks, a situation where demand increases rapidly while available supply is severely limited. This supply-demand imbalance pushes the price equilibrium upward, especially for tokens with thin float liquidity.

Some of our favorite tokens like SUI, TAO and SOL are therefore well-positioned in a bullish environment, as their high staking ratios amplify scarcity, making each incremental unit of demand more impactful on price. In contrast, Ethereum, with only 28.2% staked, has a larger liquid supply, which can dampen immediate price responsiveness unless accompanied by massive inflows. Thus, in a risk-on altseason driven by BTC’s directional clarity, staked supply dynamics can become a critical catalyst for identifying asymmetric upside potential in the altcoin market.

Businesses Buying & Individuals Selling

In 2025, Bitcoin is undergoing a major ownership shift. Individual investors have sold off 247,000 BTC, while institutions have stepped in as aggressive buyers. Businesses added 157,000 BTC, led by Strategy with a staggering current 576,000 BTC stack. Funds and ETFs gained 49,000 BTC, and governments added another 19,000 BTC. BlackRock’s IBIT now holds 636,000 BTC, making it the second largest holder globally ahead of Binance and just behind Satoshi Nakamoto. Sovereign wealth funds are accumulating more with Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala fund increasing its stake in IBIT to $408.5M in March 2025, up from December last year.

The data shows retail is being shaken out by fear headlines, from tariffs to regulatory uncertainty and institutions are quietly loading up. This transfer of Bitcoin into long term institutional hands is a powerful bullish signal. These entities aren’t trading short-term, they’re locking it away for years, tightening supply and reducing sell pressure. With fewer coins available and conviction rising among the world’s largest asset managers, the foundation is being laid for Bitcoin’s next major bull cycle, this time, led by the most serious capital on the planet.

Australia Turns Bullish?

A recent Victorian court ruling has put crypto back in the spotlight for Aussie investors. In a criminal case, the judge recognised Bitcoin as “just another form of money", not property, which could mean it's not subject to capital gains tax. This challenges the ATO’s long standing view of Bitcoin and if upheld, experts say it could unlock up to $1 billion in tax refunds and pave the way for future gains to be tax free.

Along with this, a new report from the AFR showed 1.9 million tax paying Australians have accounts with local crypto exchanges, and that number jumps even higher when you include those trading on international platforms. While it’s unlikely this tax interpretation becomes policy in the short term, it’s a powerful legal precedent and it adds pressure on regulators to modernise Australia’s outdated crypto laws. If momentum continues, this could fast track mainstream adoption and position Australia as a forward thinking leader in the next evolution of global finance, something we currently lack.

Bitcoin RSI Breakout

Bitcoin's price action is showing promising signs of strength, particularly when viewed through the lens of the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Historically, every time the weekly RSI has approached or broken above the 70 level, it has marked the beginning of a major rally, past breakouts have seen gains of 66%, 75%, and even up to 420%. Currently, the weekly RSI is nearing 70, while the daily RSI has already crossed above it, suggesting momentum is building once again.

If Bitcoin can push toward an 85 RSI, it could signal a final leg of explosive price appreciation, as this has often been the upper bound for BTC during parabolic phases. That said, the 85 RSI level has historically aligned with local tops, often followed by meaningful corrections. Reaching this level would not only validate the bullish momentum but also serve as an early signal to prepare for potential exit opportunities.

With RSI heating up across multiple timeframes and past patterns aligning, the technical backdrop supports the case for a potential BTC breakout in the near term.

Weekly Narrative Performance

This week, Bitcoin stood out as the only major sector in green, posting a 3.2% gain while most narratives saw moderate to heavy pullbacks. Layer 2s and NFT applications led the downside with losses of 14.0% and 11.0%, respectively, followed by Gaming and AI sectors. This comes after a strong rally across the board last week, making the correction a relatively expected cooldown.

As we noted earlier, Bitcoin’s next directional move remains the key driver for broader market momentum. Until BTC breaks out decisively, altcoins are likely to stay range-bound or under pressure. Notably, the memecoin narrative continues to gain traction, only slightly down this week and standing out as one of the few strong narratives. For now, altcoins appear to be in a holding pattern, waiting for Bitcoin to take the lead before making their next leg higher.

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