Crypto Market on Edge: Awaiting Bitcoin's Next Move
Following one of the most volatile weeks in crypto, global markets remain on edge as U.S.–China trade tensions reignite and uncertainty continues to weigh on risk assets. Bitcoin is currently trading around $108.5K, after ranging between $103K and $113K this week, while Ethereum holds near $3.8K, fluctuating between $3.5K and $4.5K, showing sharp intraday swings. The speculated insider trader on Hyperliquid, who reportedly earned over $200 million shorting last week’s China tariff crash, has since doubled down on his Bitcoin short, now holding $234 million in positions with a liquidation level near $123K.
Grayscale has announced its new Decentralised AI Fund, allocating 33.5% to Bittensor (TAO), further cementing its role as the leading AI asset in the crypto market. As volatility persists, investors are watching closely to see whether this consolidation marks the foundation for the next leg higher or the beginning of a deeper rotation across majors, as market structure and sentiment recalibrate heading into November.
Market Cycle Outlook: Tracking Bitcoin's Key Levels
In UpTrade Alpha this week, we unpacked the current stage of the crypto market cycle and why the next few weeks could be decisive. Bitcoin and Ethereum are holding key support levels, but momentum remains soft as trade tensions and macro uncertainty weigh on sentiment.
We noted that Bitcoin remains the key driver, and for this cycle to continue higher, BTC must reclaim strength and conviction. On the charts, the critical level to watch is the 50-week moving average near $102K,
a long-term support that has twice held this cycle. Historically, a weekly close below it has marked the shift into a bear phase.
- In the previous cycle, BTC also used the 50-week moving average (red line) as support twice before reaching its final all-time high. Once it broke below this level, the bull cycle ended.
This cycle, however, looks different from past halving patterns. Institutional adoption has softened volatility, and macro factors like delayed rate cuts, trade wars, and geopolitical tensions are shaping a new rhythm. With a pro-crypto U.S. administration in play, we may be seeing a more extended, policy-driven cycle.
While some claim the cycle top is in, we see reasons for continuation, including two expected rate cuts this year and further easing into 2026 as quantitative tightening (QT) winds down. Even macro heavyweights like Raoul Pal have echoed this view, suggesting “the bull market will extend to Q2 of 2026.” In the short term, BTC dominance (BTC.D) may rise as traders seek stability, reinforcing the need for a solid BTC core.
Trade Tensions Trigger Another Shakeout
Following the largest liquidation cascade of the cycle, the crypto market faced another setback this week as trade tensions between the U.S. and China flared up once again. Political shocks have repeatedly proven capable of derailing short-term momentum, and this time was no different. The renewed tariff threats from President Trump, proposing a 155% levy on Chinese imports effective November 1, sent ripples through global markets. While the deal remains unconfirmed, sentiment soured immediately, with Bitcoin sliding from $113K to $108K and Ethereum retracing from $4.1K toward the $3,800–$3,900 range.
As seen throughout this year, abrupt policy shifts and geopolitical friction can cause sharp but temporary drawdowns. Once the dust settles, market momentum and capital rotation tend to recover, supported by renewed investor confidence and institutional participation in risk assets. For disciplined investors, this short-term volatility may present a strategic opportunity to dollar-cost average, rather than reacting emotionally to fear-driven moves.
UpTrade Remains Resilient During Market Chaos
Last week’s crash was one of the sharpest declines in history, and while major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase experienced outages, UpTrade remained fully operational. Thanks to our smart order routing system, which connects to over 40 exchanges and DEXs, we maintained 100% uptime throughout the volatility. Every trade, limit order, and position adjustment executed smoothly while much of the market froze.
The biggest challenge came not from our systems, but from investors caught without available capital. Those who had stablecoins, cash reserves, or a predefined dip-buying plan were able to act quickly and take full advantage of the move. Historically, 20–40% pullbacks are a normal part of crypto market cycles. If you were stuck trying to get money in, make sure you’re ready for the next one, whether that means keeping funds ready to deploy or knowing which assets you’d rotate into when opportunity strikes.
Gold Pulls Back: What This Could Mean for Bitcoin
Gold dropped over 6% in a single day after reaching new record highs, marking its largest decline since 2013. The metal plunged from $4,381 to $4,082 per ounce (USD), after lines of people were seen publicly queueing to buy gold this week, a classic sign of overheated sentiment. Despite the sharp drop, gold’s broader outlook remains bullish. After nine consecutive green weeks and a 25% rally, this pullback appears to be a healthy reset. Some analysts have noted that Bitcoin tends to lag gold’s major moves by roughly eight weeks, suggesting the current cooling in gold could precede renewed BTC momentum.
Bitwise released a model this week speculating that a 1–5% rotation from gold into Bitcoin could push BTC prices between $134K and $242K, depending on allocation size. With gold’s market cap near ~$30 trillion compared to Bitcoin’s ~$2 trillion, the upside potential remains enormous if BTC continues maturing as a digital alternative to hard assets. As confidence builds and capital rotates, this dynamic could mark the next major inflection point of the current crypto cycle.
Coinbase Expands With $375M Echo Acquisition
Coinbase has announced the $375M acquisition of Echo, an on-chain investment platform founded by Cobie, one of crypto’s most respected OG figures. Echo enables communities to invest collectively and gives founders a more inclusive path to raising capital, whether through private rounds or self-hosted public token sales via its flagship tool, Sonar.
Since launch, Echo has facilitated over $200 million in funding across roughly 300 deals, with standout successes including Plasma’s XPL token sale and Ethena, which became the first project ever funded through Echo.
Cobie confirmed on X that Echo will remain a standalone platform for now, while Coinbase plans to integrate Sonar’s public sale infrastructure into its ecosystem. This move could unlock new pathways for founders seeking direct investor access and users looking for early-stage opportunities, marking another step in Coinbase’s broader push toward community driven capital formation.
Ethereum ETF Outflows Despite Treasury Accumulation
While ETH ETFs continue to see persistent outflows, on-chain data shows institutional treasuries quietly accumulating through the recent pullback. Publicly listed BitMine Immersion Technologies has purchased 379,271 ETH (~$1.5B) since last weekend’s liquidation event, while SharpLink Gaming added 19,271 ETH (~$75M) in the same period.
This contrast highlights a clear narrative shift — while ETF investors de-risk, corporate treasuries are viewing current prices as a strategic accumulation window. The scale of these purchases reflects rising confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value proposition, suggesting that smart money is rotating as volatility shakes out weaker hands.
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