Market Remains On Edge
The past week served as another major test of market resilience. Bitcoin briefly fell below $100K, shaking investor confidence and triggering more liquidations across the market. However, its swift recovery and ability to reclaim the $100k level helped restore some stability, showing that buyers are still defending key structural levels.
Despite this rebound, fear remains elevated and market sentiment cautious, with participants still adjusting to a more volatile environment. Bitcoin now trades around $103.5K, consolidating after reaching a weekly high of $106.8K. While uncertainty lingers, the price action reflects a market that continues to hold its broader bullish structure, even during ongoing pressure and doubt.
The Government Shutdown , the amount of ETF approvals
The US government shutdown, now the longest in history at over 40 days, has severely delayed routine financial approvals, including at least 16 crypto ETF applications awaiting SEC sign-off before the shutdown began. The SEC's capacity to approve ETFs has been limited by the shutdown as non-essential staff are furloughed, stalling formal sign-offs critical for product launches like spot crypto ETFs on Litecoin, Solana, and XRP.
Moreover, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at “Extreme Fear”, reflecting the pivot to the risk aversion and uncertainty of investors in digital assets. However, prediction market Polymarket now places the odds of the shutdown ending this week at over 95%, with the House vote expected on November 12, followed swiftly by presidential approval. This imminent resolution is anticipated to reduce financial uncertainty, leading to renewed market liquidity and investor confidence in risk-on digital assets.
This can potentially set the catalyst for a bullish Q4, with institutional interest reigniting, such as increased accumulation by DAT and Strategic Treasury Reserve, and optimism for a wave of crypto ETF launches once normal SEC operations resume. Additionally, recent SEC no-action letters and regulatory relief in related crypto areas are set to further enhance institutional participation. The end of the government shutdown could unlock significant stalled demand and usher in a major market rally fueled by both renewed ETF approvals and improved macro stability.
Trump’s proposal for a $2000 stimulus
Trump has proposed issuing a $2000 dividend to middle and lower income citizens Americans from tariff revenues. The proposal intends to politically and financially reward Americans by converting government tariff revenue into personal payouts or tax benefits, akin to past pandemic stimulus checks. Moreover, it also reflects an attempt to justify the tariff policy by highlighting it as a source of revenue that can benefit the public directly, and making the implementation of tariffs seem more attractive to American citizens.
The dividends could come in the form of various fiscal forms and not as direct cash payments. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, indicates that the stimulus can come in the form of tax refund or deductions, auto loans or similarly to the pandemic stimulus check tax codes. The administration however has not confirmed the implementation of this proposal nor the specific details on how payments would be distributed. This proposal could boost disposable income, encouraging consumer spending and investment, which can potentially reignite momentum as increased liquidity drives demand for equities and cryptocurrencies, fueling a bullish Q4. In the last cycle, the pandemic stimuli was one of the main causes that fueled the run as people had more disposable income to spend. On the other hand, economists caution that these measures could exacerbate inflationary pressures.
Prediction Market
Prediction markets are platforms that allow people to buy and sell “shares” or bets on the specific outcome of future events with the price movement dictated all by participants. Polymarket and Kalshi currently dominate the market. Polymarket is a decentralised, crypto-native prediction market that gained popularity with the main purpose, according to founder Shayne Coplan, is to counter misinformation by turning opinions on real-world events into a financially-backed forecast, acting as a truth terminal. Kalshi, on the other hand, operates under regulatory oversight with a focus on high-value verticals like sports, politics, and economic indicators, prioritizing trust and legitimacy. The popularity of the prediction market has risen exponentially after the 2024 US election which predicted President Trump’s victory faster and more accurately than news sources with the platform capturing over $2 billion trading volume. The demand for prediction markets is further supported by Polymarket's $9 billion valuation following a strategic investment of over $2 billion from the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange.
Polymarket US is set to re-enter the United States as the regulated entity of Polymarket that will operate under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Further, there is speculation with Polymarket launching their own token early next year. Many analysts have anticipated this launch to be one of the biggest token-generated event where the launch could draw massive liquidity on-chain and towards the prediction market narrative in 2026.
According to Grand View Research, the global sports betting market is projected to be worth approximately $120B USD in 2025. Even capturing 5% of those audiences can bring in a billions of volume and revenue before even considering non-sports markets like macro, election and culture.
Token Catalysts
A steady week across DeFi brought several key protocol updates. Uniswap (UNI) introduced its long-awaited “UNIfication” proposal, which effectively launches a buyback and burn mechanism for the token. The plan activates protocol fees of up to 0.25% from the standard 0.30% fee used to buy and burn UNI. It also includes a one time 100M UNI burn (~$800M), creating a more sustainable value model for token holders.
Ether.fi approved a $50M buyback program for ETHFI, automatically triggered on-chain whenever the token trades below $3. This follows another strong quarter, with TVL up 78% to $11.5B and revenue rising 85% to $77M, highlighting the project’s restaking dominance and consistent growth.
Finally, Canary Funds completed its Form 8-A filing, clearing the path for the first XRP spot ETF to list on Nasdaq, expected to go live Thursday at market open, another step toward expanding institutional access to XRP exposure.
Bitcoin Reclaims the 50-Week Moving Average
After a volatile week, Bitcoin has given bulls a welcome sign of relief, rebounding from its low of $99K to $105K following positive market news and reclaiming the 50-week moving average, a key technical level watched closely by traders. For most of the week, BTC traded below this level, raising concern that momentum was fading. However, with less than an hour remaining on the weekly candle, BTC managed to surge above and close higher than the 50-week, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact for now. This recovery mirrors the “flush and reclaim” setup we highlighted in Alpha, similar to prior market resets where deep pullbacks cleared liquidity before strength returned. For now, the technical structure is holding, giving bulls short-term control heading into mid-November, though confirmation will depend on how price behaves over the coming weeks.
Square Launches Bitcoin Payments for 4 Million Merchants
Square has rolled out Bitcoin payments across its U.S. merchant network, enabling over 4 million businesses to accept BTC directly via Lightning Network powered terminals. The integration allows for instant, low-cost transactions that settle in seconds, a major leap toward everyday crypto payments. To drive adoption, Square is offering zero processing fees until 2027, after which a minimal 1% fee will apply, far lower than traditional 2–4% credit card rates. Merchants can choose to auto-convert BTC to USD or hold it directly, providing flexibility as adoption grows.
For example, a coffee shop owner can now toggle “Accept Bitcoin” in their Square dashboard, scan a QR code, and receive payment instantly. Funds hit their bank account the next day or remain in BTC, whichever they prefer. No middlemen, no delays, no card fees, just fast, global crypto payments made simple.
Join Us at Australian CryptoCon 2025
For the second year running, UpTrade is proud to be a major sponsor of the Australian Crypto Convention, the largest crypto event in the Southern Hemisphere, and this year, we’ll have our own stage with live speeches from industry leaders.
The event takes place in Sydney on November 22–23, and we’re offering complimentary tickets for Alpha Pro members. Simply reply to this email or reach out to your broker to reserve your spot.
For everyone else, you can still grab tickets with a 10% discount using the code UPTRADE at checkout. Don’t miss the chance to connect with our team, meet the broader UpTrade community, and be part of one of the biggest weekends in crypto.
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