Bitcoin Surges Ahead of FOMC Meeting
Bitcoin has broken out of its tight range from last week, reaching $117K and moving toward reclaiming the key $117.5K zone to confirm bullish momentum. Among the majors, the clear leader has been Solana, which rallied to $250, its highest price since January.
The highly anticipated FOMC meeting is scheduled for tonight, drawing close attention from global investors. Market consensus currently expects a 25bps rate cut, a decision that could influence risk appetite and set the tone for market direction heading into the remainder of September.
Weekly Price Update
How Will The Market React to The FOMC Meeting
Given recent signs of weakness in the labor market, a rate cut at tomorrow’s FOMC meeting is fully priced in, with markets assigning a 100% probability to this outcome. As the market has priced in the rate cut, the real focus should be on what follows with the speech from Chair Powell.
The key takeaway will not be the announcement of the rate cut, but rather Powell’s commentary. His dovish or hawkish stance will provide critical signals about the direction of the economy and financial markets for the rest of this year and into next.
If Powell projects a hawkish stance, the market will likely react negatively, while a dovish stance can strengthen investors confidence and optimism about the months ahead.
Hawkish stance: Emphasises preventing the economy from overheating and keeping inflation in check. This usually points to higher interest rates, tighter monetary policy, and a slowdown in consumer spending and borrowing. Markets tend to react negatively to such a message.
Dovish stance: Bolster economic growth and strengthen the labor market. This generally implies lower interest rates, looser monetary policy, and encouragement of spending and investment. Markets often respond positively, as it boosts investor confidence and optimism.
Target Rate Probabilities for December Fed Meeting
- Currently, markets are pricing a 70% probability that interest rates will drop by 75bps between now and the December FOMC meeting, which could imply three consecutive 25bps cuts by December 10th.
How does a rate cut affect markets that are at all-time high?
Referring to the table below, when the Fed has cut the interest rate with S&P 500 2% from all-time high, the stock has an average return of +13.9% over the next 12 months 20 out of 20 times. Therefore, historical data indicate that the near-term volatility after the FOMC meeting might provide a buying opportunity.
S&P 500 Performance When FED Cuts Rate Near ATH's
Solana Joins BTC and ETH as a Treasury Asset
A clear narrative shift we are monitoring is underway as Solana (SOL) emerges as a digital asset treasury option, following the precedent set by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Both BTC and ETH have proven their ability to serve as balance-sheet assets for institutions, and now Solana is stepping into that role after its remarkable performance this month. The token surged to $245 this week, supported by strong ecosystem engagement and rising institutional interest. Central to this shift was the $1.6 billion Solana purchase by Galaxy, Jump, and Multicoin, signalling deep conviction in Solana’s long-term value and positioning it as a credible treasury-grade asset.
The implications of such large-scale buying are significant. With 76.4% of SOL already staked and effectively removed from circulating supply, the market is extremely sensitive to new demand. As major players accumulate billions in SOL, this creates an amplified supply-demand shock, intensifying upward price pressure and reducing available liquidity for retail and smaller institutions. This dynamic not only strengthens Solana’s price resilience but also cements its role as a strategic holding in the broader digital asset landscape, where treasury adoption is becoming one of the most powerful narratives driving institutional capital flows.
BTC and ETH ETFs See Renewed Inflows Ahead of FOMC
Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded seven consecutive days of positive inflows, totalling over $2.8B, signalling renewed institutional confidence ahead of the anticipated Fed rate cut. Similarly, Ethereum ETFs have seen five positive days out of the past six, bringing in over $1.03B.
Historically, in the lead-up to FOMC meetings, markets often experience heightened uncertainty and volatility. This can trigger a rotation of capital flows, with investors pivoting from altcoins into perceived lower-risk assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. The sharp reversal in BTC and ETH ETF inflows reflects this risk-off positioning, as investors seek stability ahead of key monetary policy announcements.
Bitcoin Dominance Chart
PayPal Embeds Crypto Into Everyday Payments
PayPal recently announced a new feature for its peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions called “Links,” which allows personalised, one-time links that can be shared in conversations. The feature will support transfers of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and PayPal’s stablecoin (PYUSD). This marks another step toward integrating crypto into everyday payments rather than limiting it to investment or trading. With 400M+ active accounts, PayPal’s implementation of crypto payments is expected to expand its user base, enable seamless cross-platform transactions, and strengthen its position as a leader in digital payments. The P2P function will first launch in the United States before rolling out globally.
PayPal’s crypto roadmap began with buy/sell services in 2020, expanded to checkout with crypto and Venmo integration in 2021, enabled transfers to external wallets in 2022, and launched its PYUSD stablecoin in 2023. Now, with the rollout of “Links” in 2025, PayPal is taking the next step by embedding crypto directly into its P2P payments.
Dogecoin and XRP ETFs Set to Launch Tomorrow
After being delayed last week, Dogecoin and XRP ETFs are now set to launch tomorrow, marking a major step forward in the integration of crypto into mainstream finance. Dogecoin, widely seen as the first meme coin and one of crypto’s original speculative assets, will now be accessible through a regulated investment product. These products will open the door for greater institutional access to crypto holdings.
If the launches are successful, it could strengthen the case for further SEC approvals of crypto ETFs, attracting new inflows and potentially paving the way for more altcoin ETFs, which would inject fresh capital into the sector. The approval of these two ETFs could serve as an important catalyst for broader adoption across the digital asset market.
