Bitcoin Holds Strong!

Bitcoin has continued its strength into this week, holding firmly around a key $94,000-$95,000 zone. This momentum has continued to flow further down the market, with ETH up 3.11% and fighting to hold $1,800. The total crypto market cap has grown by 8.10%, adding $220 billion. This week Michael Saylor again announced that Strategy acquired another $1.42B worth of BTC at an average price of $92,737 per coin.

This week brings important macro data that could impact markets. The JOLTS report, released today, showed U.S. job openings falling to 7.192 million, well below the expected 7.5 million indicating a cooling labour market. This could increase the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut, although that’s still not expected until June. On May 2nd, the latest unemployment rate figures will be released, a key metric the Fed closely watches ahead of its meeting next week.

Weekly Price Update

Bull Market Support Band

The Bull Market Support Band (BMSB) is a key indicator that shows where Bitcoin tends to find its footing during major uptrends. It’s made up of two moving averages, the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA).

Right now, BTC is at a critical point. We’ve just made a fresh move back above the Bull Market Support Band (exciting). The last major breakout was in October, which kickstarted a 70% rally. After that breakout, BTC stayed above the band all the way until February, when the price finally slipped back below. Now, we’ve just closed our first weekly candle back above the BMSB, a positive sign. But history shows that to confirm a true breakout, we usually need two strong weekly closes. Just look at July 2024, BTC closed one week above the band, only to fall sharply the following week.

Bitcoin Bull Market Support Band - Key Week

This second weekly close could be crucial in deciding if we’re gearing up for another major move. For now, the key level to watch is around $92K. If BTC can hold that into next week, it could shape the next few months in a big way.

Sector Performance - Trending Narratives

The latest seven day sector performance shows continued strength in AI, up 16.5% this week after a 30% surge last week. Most other sectors have cooled, with Memes at 0.5% and DeFi slightly down at -0.6%. AI agents, part of the broader AI narrative, are dominating again with standout gains. Virtual is up 73%, AI16z up 45%, and Prompt, which we highlighted two newsletters ago, has climbed 56%.

AI is clearly cementing itself as the breakout narrative of this cycle. Other sectors appear to be waiting for Bitcoin’s next move or signs of a broader altseason, but as history shows, momentum can shift quickly.

ETF Inflows Signal a Fresh Wave of Institutional Confidence

Institutional appetite is right back on the menu. Last week, Bitcoin ETFs saw their second largest weekly inflows in history, pulling in over $3 billion. That momentum has continued into this week, with BlackRock alone adding $970 million on Monday its second biggest single day inflow ever.

Ethereum has recorded its first weekly inflow since February, pulling in 230 million dollars after months of consistent outflows. This marks a notable shift in sentiment.

ETH to BTC has returned to a key support range, now sitting at its lowest level since 2020. This ratio tracks Ethereum’s performance against Bitcoin and has historically marked turning points in market cycles. Bitcoin tends to lead early, while Ethereum often gains strength later on. The chart shows ETH to BTC approaching a well-established zone that has previously triggered strong reversals. If this level holds and Bitcoin dominance starts to ease, it could be the first sign of a rotation back into Ethereum.

Mastercard Unlocks Stablecoin Real World Utility

Mastercard has taken a major step toward institutional adoption by launching global stablecoin payment support. Through new partnerships with MetaMask, Kraken, Binance, OKX Pay and others, over 150 million merchants can now accept and settle directly in USDC.

This is real infrastructure going live, and it signals that stablecoins are moving beyond trading use cases into everyday payments. It also likely confirms what we’ve been reporting that US regulations are preparing to lean into stablecoin adoption rather than fight it.

For crypto more broadly, this is a strong signal. As stablecoins gain real world utility, they bring more users into the ecosystem. And as those users become more comfortable, they naturally look to explore further whether that’s through investing, trading, or using decentralised apps. It’s another step toward crypto becoming a foundational part of global finance.

Alongside this news, the total stablecoin market cap has climbed to $240 billion, up 2.26% this week, marking yet another new high and confirming the renewed momentum.

XRP ETF Momentum Builds

XRP is back in the spotlight following reports that ProShares will launch three futures-based XRP ETFs on May 14, offering 2x long and inverse exposure. The initial announcement sparked a nearly 5% price jump and a 68% surge in volume, highlighting strong market demand. While the launch was briefly misunderstood as April 30, the revised date keeps momentum building. These ETFs, while futures-based, signal a growing push toward broader XRP access ahead of key SEC deadlines this year, with firms like Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares all seeking spot ETF approval.

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