Bullish or Bearish

Bitcoin’s wild volatility continues, trading between $76.8K $92.5K this week, triggering massive liquidations across exchanges. Meanwhile, whales have been aggressively accumulating, with over 65,000 BTC scooped up in the last 30 days, signalling strong conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term value.

Against this backdrop, the U.S. is making a historic pivot, embracing Bitcoin as a strategic asset. The White House has declared America the Bitcoin superpower, reinforcing its commitment to leading the digital asset revolution. With regulatory clarity and institutional adoption accelerating, America is setting the stage for a new era of financial dominance powered by Bitcoin.

Weekly Price Update

Why Bitcoin is "Special" to the U.S.

David Sacks, the White House's AI and Crypto Czar, has highlighted Bitcoin's "special" attributes that have led the U.S. government to consider it a strategic asset. In a recent interview, Sacks emphasised Bitcoin's scarcity and intrinsic value, stating, "We've decided that Bitcoin is scarce, it's valuable, and that it's strategic for the United States to hold on to this as a long-term reserve asset."

This perspective aligns with the administration's recent initiatives, including the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Sacks pointed out that previous administrations lacked a long-term strategy for managing seized Bitcoin assets, resulting in significant financial losses for taxpayers. He noted that approximately 195,000 BTC were sold for $366 million over the past decade, which would be worth over $17 billion today.

U.S Officially Creates a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

President Trump has just signed an executive order to establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, arguably the most bullish outcome given the options available. Despite this, BTC has dropped sharply by -7%, likely a market overreaction. In the short term, investors had hoped for immediate buying, which was unrealistic. However, this move effectively removes 1% of BTC’s supply indefinitely. While these coins were already out of circulation, there was always a risk of them being sold off. Short-term pain, but long-term gain, the future remains bright. Plenty more countries, institutions and corporations will feel legitimised by this to do the same soon.

Bitcoin Price Action Post Announcement

Announcement Broken Down

The Reserve will be made with the Bitcoin currently owned by Federal Government. It's estimated the U.S government owns 200,000 Bitcoin. However David Sacks said an complete audit will be done to ensure the amount. The U.S will not sell any Bitcoin deposited into the reserve. It will be kept as a store of value. "The Reserve is like a digital Fort Knox for the cryptocurrency often called, digital gold.”

The Secretaries of Treasury and Commerce are authorised to develop budget neutral strategies for acquiring additional bitcoin, provided that those strategies have no incremental costs on American taxpayers. (U.S will look to buy more, however not at tax payers cost, could be from confiscations or even liquidating other reserves like some of there gold).

In addition, the Executive Order establishes a U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile, consisting of digital assets other than bitcoin forfeited in criminal or civil proceedings. The government will not acquire additional assets for the Stockpile beyond those obtained through forfeiture proceedings.

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Panic Selling Frenzy

The stock market saw a $1.75 trillion wipeout yesterday, highlighting extreme risk-off sentiment across all markets, even traditional assets. Despite this, Bitcoin was only down 1.6%, which is notable given its usual volatility. BTC and digital assets typically moves more aggressively than equities, making this relative strength something to continue to keep eyes on.

Stocks Market Map

However, if we look at crypto fear levels, we can note that they have reached extremes last seen during the COVID-19 crash and the 2022 market bottom. Historically, these moments of peak fear have often been strong buying opportunities for those with long-term conviction, as they tend to coincide with market bottoms before significant recoveries.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

At the same time, Bitcoin accumulation remains at record highs, suggesting that despite widespread fear, long-term holders continue to add to their positions.

Bitcoin Exchange Reserves

Above is a chart of Bitcoin exchange reserves, which have been dropping significantly since the start of 2024. This decline is largely driven by the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, which have collectively accumulated over 6.2% of the total BTC supply, effectively removing a large share from exchanges.

Additionally, large whale wallets have also been accumulating, further contributing to the declining BTC reserves on exchanges.

If we compare the growth of ETF Bitcoin holdings with the decline in Bitcoin exchange reserves since November, it becomes clear that ETFs alone do not account for the entire reduction. This suggests that other major entities such as institutional investors, high-net-worth individuals, and long-term holders, are actively accumulating and withdrawing BTC from exchanges.

This reduction in available supply could act as a supply-side catalyst for future price appreciation, especially if demand continues to rise as it has in recent months.

America’s Bitcoin Era

The United States is making bold strides in its push to dominate the global crypto landscape, with recent developments signaling a seismic shift in policy.

At a White House crypto summit, President Donald Trump announced his administration’s vision for the U.S. to become the Bitcoin superpower of the world, declaring, "The Golden Age of America has begun!" This move underscores the government's strategic embrace of digital assets, positioning the country at the forefront of innovation in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency adoption.

As part of this broader initiative, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has issued groundbreaking guidance permitting national banks and federal savings associations to custody crypto assets without prior regulatory approval. This policy shift provides traditional financial institutions with the green light to integrate digital assets into their offerings, making crypto banking a mainstream service. With this decision, the U.S. is bridging the gap between conventional banking and decentralised finance (DeFi), ensuring that Bitcoin and digital assets gain institutional legitimacy.

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